Luxury inventory is usually discussed as a single number. More interesting is where it sits. I pulled the mid-2026 active listings at $2 million and above for the markets I work, and the map tells a story the headlines miss.
The current supply, by market
In Halton and Oakville, 288 homes are asking $2 million or more, including 130 at $3 million and up. Remarkably, the $2 million to $3 million band is the single busiest price range on the entire board, busier than any mid-market band. In York Region and Markham, the estate tier holds 176 homes at $2 million plus, 77 of them at $3 million and above, sitting on top of a fiercely competitive mid-market. Aurora alone accounts for 64 at $2 million plus, including 13 asking above $5 million, extraordinary depth for a town its size.
Add it up and a serious buyer has hundreds of legitimate options across the region's west and north. That is not a market running out of luxury homes. It is a market where luxury supply has quietly become the deep end of the pool.
Why the top end is well supplied while the middle is tight
Three forces. First, a decade of custom building and estate development has physically expanded the top tier, particularly in Oakville and York Region's newer estate pockets. Second, owners at this level sell on life events rather than rate cycles, so stable conditions have coaxed out listings that waited through the volatile years. Third, the renewal-driven pressure reshaping the mid-market simply does not operate on owners whose homes are largely equity.
Meanwhile the mid-bands, the detached family homes between $1 million and $1.5 million, remain the busiest and most competed inventory everywhere, which is exactly why a quarter of Markham sales close above asking.
What this means for buyers
Selection at the top end is the best it has been in years, and selection changes strategy. A buyer at $2.5 million or $3.5 million can currently hold a precise brief, the right street, the right lot, the right light, and actually wait for it, rather than compromising because nothing else exists. In several pockets, the negotiating dynamics reward that patience.
What this means for sellers
Depth means competition. When a serious buyer shortlists your home against a dozen legitimate alternatives, the winners are the properties that are priced with discipline and presented at the standard the price implies. The mid-2026 data is consistent on this: the typical sale lands at 97 per cent of list, and the homes that sell move in about three weeks. Estate sellers who treat the current depth casually are the ones averaging twice that.
The moving map
Supply at the top end is not static. Sales momentum has been building through the year while new listings have thinned, and the autumn market typically concentrates serious activity. Where the depth sits in October will not be where it sits today.
I track this map weekly because my buyers and sellers make decisions with it. If you would like to know what the estate supply looks like on your street, or in the neighbourhood you are hunting, I am glad to share the current picture.