With the fall market now underway, it is worth assembling the complete summer picture, because the fall's opening conditions were written in July.
The numbers, plainly
TRREB's July Market Watch: 5,995 sales, essentially flat at 0.9 per cent below last July. Average price $1,003,956, down 4.5 per cent year over year. The MLS Home Price Index composite, the cleaner measure of typical-home values, down 4.6 per cent. And the number that changes everything around it: new listings at 14,484, a 17.8 per cent year-over-year contraction.
TRREB's own read was that tightening conditions set the stage for price stability in the second half. Markets bottom supply-first, and this is what supply-first looks like.
What it means for sellers
You are listing into the thinnest fall competition in years, but into buyers educated by two years of soft headlines. The winning combination is confident preparation with honest pricing: launch at the number the last ninety days of your own pocket supports, presented flawlessly, and let scarcity do the negotiating. The sellers who struggle this fall will be the ones pricing to 2022 memories or presenting to 2020 standards.
What it means for buyers
The patient-buyer strategy of waiting for ever-better selection is quietly expiring. Values have softened, financing is stable with the policy rate at 2.25 per cent, and the inventory contraction means the property that fits your family may genuinely not have a substitute this season. The rational stance is decisive readiness: financing arranged, criteria defined, and the discipline to move within days when the right home lists.
The advisor's summary
Neither fear nor euphoria is supported by this data. What the numbers describe is a market returning to fundamentals, where preparation and positioning decide outcomes and the averages decide headlines. That is, frankly, the market skilled participants prefer.
Whatever your fall involves, buying, selling, or positioning for 2027, the conversation should start from your numbers, not the region's. That conversation is what I am here for.