There is a number that shows up in every mid-2026 board data set I pull, from Oakville to Markham to Aurora: 97 per cent. That is where the typical sale lands relative to list price, market after market.
It sounds like a dry statistic. It is actually the most useful pricing instruction a seller can receive.
What 97 per cent really tells you
A market that transacts at 97 per cent of list is an honest market. Buyers are not lowballing broadly, and sellers are not fantasy-pricing successfully. The negotiation happens inside a narrow band around a number the market already roughly agrees on.
That has a sharp implication: your list price is not an opening gambit anymore. It is a signal of whether you understand your own home's value. Price within honest range of the market's answer and buyers engage quickly; the data shows well-priced homes selling in about three weeks. Price far outside it and buyers do not negotiate you down. They simply do not come, which is how a listing joins the group averaging seven weeks and counting on the market.
Why luxury pricing is harder, and why that helps you
At $2 million and above, comparables thin out. One-of-one custom homes, irreplaceable lots, and street-by-street variation mean two neighbouring properties can honestly deserve prices hundreds of thousands apart. This is where sellers get into trouble in both directions: anchoring to a neighbour's peak-market result, or underestimating what an irreplaceable frontage commands.
The same difficulty is your opportunity. In a market where buyers have toured everything and know the recent sales cold, a precisely priced luxury home stands out immediately. It reads as credible, and credibility is what draws the prepared buyer who closes in three weeks, sometimes above asking.
The above-asking paradox
Here is the pattern the data supports across the region: a meaningful share of sales close above list, one in four in Markham, one in five in Aurora, one in eight in Halton. Almost none of those results come from ambitious pricing. They come from sharp pricing that concentrated buyer attention and let competition do the lifting.
You do not get bid up from a price the market considers high. You get bid up from a price the market considers right.
How I build a luxury price
Three layers. First, the honest comparables, weighted for what actually matches: lot, street, light, build quality. Second, the live competition: what a serious buyer sees this week when they shortlist against you. Third, the strategy: where to sit relative to that field so the home reads as the obvious choice rather than the hopeful one.
Then we pressure-test it against the 97 per cent rule: if the market transacts near list, is this a number we are proud to defend in a negotiation? If yes, we are priced. If we are relying on a miracle buyer, we are not.
The conversation worth having early
The best pricing conversations happen months before a listing, when there is time to invest where it returns and position without pressure. If you are weighing a sale in the next year, I am glad to build this three-layer analysis for your home now. It is complimentary, and it tends to remove more anxiety than any forecast ever could.